AARO “Al Taqaddum 物体” UAP 案例结案报告

— p. 1 — UNCLASSIFIED 1 UNCLASSIFIED All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) U.S. Department of War Case: “The Al Taqaddum Object” Case Resolution | 8 September 2025 AARO Assessment and Case Status AARO assesses with high confidence that the Al Taqaddum object did not exhibit anomalous behavior or capabilities. AARO assesses with high confidence that the object was consistent with a cluster of fully and partially inflated balloons (Figure 1). Case Overview On October 23, 2017, an infrared (IR) sensor aboard an aerostat force protection dirigible (blimp) operating at 2,700 feet above Al Taqaddum Air Base, Iraq, recorded 17 minutes and 30 seconds of footage featuring an unidentified object that appears to be floating above the ground. Key Findings AARO assesses with high confidence that the object: • Did not exhibit anomalous speed or other behavior exceeding known state- of-the-art performance characteristics • Was consistent with a cluster of fully and partially inflated balloons AARO based this assessment on analysis of full-motion video, video metadata, line-of-sight, scenario reconstructions, and weather data analysis. The object’s appearance and lack of thermal signatures is consistent with previously identified balloon clusters, and bolsters AARO’s assessment of the morphology and performance characteristics of the object. Case Synopsis Location: Al Taqaddum Air Base, Iraq Date: 23 October 2017 Object Altitude (Reported): Not reported Object Altitude (Assessed): 850-2,200 feet Object Speed (Reported): Not reported Object Speed (Assessed): 4-14 mph Object Shape (Reported): Abnormally shaped Object Shape (Assessed): Balloon shaped Reporter: Unknown Data Type: Infrared Reported Behavior: Floating Assessed Behavior: The object did not demonstrate anomalous performance characteristics. Confidence: High confidence that the object did not demonstrate anomalous performance characteristics. High confidence that the object was consistent with a cluster of fully and partially inflated balloons.25-P-1190

— 第 1 页 — 未分类 全域异常解决办公室（AARO） 美国战争部 案例：“Al Taqaddum 物体” 案例结案 | 2025年9月8日 AARO 评估与案例状态 AARO 以高置信度评估 Al Taqaddum 物体未表现出异常行为或能力。AARO 以高置信度评估该物体与一簇完全充气和部分充气的气球相符（图1）。 案例概述 2017年10月23日，一具搭载于在伊拉克 Al Taqaddum 空军基地上空2,700英尺处作业的浮空器部队防护飞艇（软式飞艇）上的红外（IR）传感器，录下了17分30秒的影像，画面中有一个看似漂浮于地面上空的不明物体。 主要发现 AARO 以高置信度评估该物体： • 未表现出超出已知最先进性能特征的异常速度或其他行为 • 与一簇完全充气和部分充气的气球相符 AARO 基于对全动态视频、视频元数据、视线、情景重建以及天气数据的分析得出该评估。该物体的外观及缺乏热信号与先前已识别的气球簇相符，佐证了 AARO 对该物体形态与性能特征的评估。 案例概要 地点：伊拉克 Al Taqaddum 空军基地 日期：2017年10月23日 物体高度（报告）：未报告 物体高度（评估）：850–2,200英尺 物体速度（报告）：未报告 物体速度（评估）：4–14英里/小时 物体形状（报告）：形状异常 物体形状（评估）：气球状 报告者：未知 数据类型：红外 报告的行为：漂浮 评估的行为：该物体未表现出异常性能特征。 置信度：高置信度认为该物体未表现出异常性能特征。高置信度认为该物体与一簇完全充气和部分充气的气球相符。25-P-1190

— p. 2 — UNCLASSIFIED 2 UNCLASSIFIED Performance Characteristics Object Altitude, Flight Path, and Speed: AARO assesses with moderate confidence that the object’s altitude was between 850-2,200 feet and that the object was moving at 4-14 miles per hour (mph), due to the variability in both historical and real-time wind data. AARO assesses with high confidence that the object was traveling within range of wind speed in an east-to-west direction using locational data from the blimp. Observable Characteristics and Attribution Shape: The shapes of fully and partially inflated balloons—as well as dangling strings—are visible in several instances in the video. The dangling strings’ shape and number change, which would be consistent with a cluster of balloons changing position relative to the sensor’s point of view. The fluctuating IR return of the object is a result of the sensor constantly adjusting to assign grayscale values to every pixel, which maximizes the visual dynamic range in a diverse and changing background. Attribution: AARO assesses with high confidence that the object is consistent with a cluster of fully and partially inflated balloons due to the object’s altitude, flight path, speed, and observed shape. Data Quality and Methodology: AARO assesses that the visual and sensor data associated with the object provides sufficiently detailed information to resolve this case with high confidence. Sensor Effects and Limitations: The video is somewhat grainy, becoming increasingly grainy toward the end of the clip, which is likely due to the object’s increasing distance from the sensor. Alternative Hypothesis One of AARO’s partners theorized that the object could be a quadrotor Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) draped in camouflage netting, though this theory is unlikely for two reasons: • Movement: A quadrotor UAS would be unlikely to drift with the wind, as this object does. • Heat signature: The motors of a quadrotor UAS would generate heat visible to an IR sensor, and the video does not indicate the presence of such heat sources. Therefore, AARO and its partners discarded this theory, concurring that the object was unlikely to have been a quadrotor UAS and was more likely a cluster of fully and partially inflated balloons.

— 第 2 页 — 性能特征 物体高度、飞行路径与速度：由于历史与实时风数据均存在变动，AARO 以中等置信度评估该物体高度介于850–2,200英尺、移动速度为4–14英里/小时（mph）。AARO 利用飞艇的位置数据，以高置信度评估该物体在风速范围内沿东向西方向移动。 可观察特征与归因 形状：视频中多处可见完全充气和部分充气气球的形状，以及垂悬的绳线。垂悬绳线的形状与数量发生变化，这与一簇气球相对于传感器视角改变位置相符。物体起伏波动的红外回波，是传感器为图像每个像素不断调整、分配灰度值以在多变背景中最大化视觉动态范围的结果。 归因：基于该物体的高度、飞行路径、速度与观测到的形状，AARO 以高置信度评估该物体与一簇完全充气和部分充气的气球相符。 数据质量与方法：AARO 评估与该物体相关的视觉与传感器数据提供了足够详尽的信息，可以高置信度结案。 传感器效应与局限：视频略显颗粒感，并在片段末尾愈发明显，这很可能是由于物体与传感器距离不断增大所致。 替代假说 AARO 的一个合作伙伴推测该物体可能是一架披覆伪装网的四旋翼无人机系统（UAS），但此理论不太可能成立，原因有二： • 运动：四旋翼无人机系统不太可能像该物体那样随风飘移。 • 热信号：四旋翼无人机系统的电机会产生红外传感器可见的热量，而视频中未显示存在此类热源。 因此，AARO 及其合作伙伴排除了该理论，一致认为该物体不太可能是四旋翼无人机系统，而更可能是一簇完全充气和部分充气的气球。

— p. 3 — UNCLASSIFIED 3 UNCLASSIFIED Figure 1: Stills of the UAP from the 17-minute video. Aerostat deployed at Al Taqaddum Air Base. The balloons appear as bulbous, rounded shapes; similarly, the strings and deflated balloons can be seen hanging below. These images were assigned different color temperatures to aid in visualization. AARO is not a member of the Intelligence Community. This AARO information report should not be considered finished intelligence. It may contain references to finished intelligence reports, information provided by AARO’s coordinating interagency partners, or both to provide context, show relevance, or substantiate AARO analytic perspectives. (UNCLASSIFIED) (UNCLASSIFIED)

— 第 3 页 — 图1：取自17分钟视频的 UAP 静帧。浮空器部署于 Al Taqaddum 空军基地。气球呈球状、圆润的形态；同样可见绳线与瘪掉的气球悬于下方。这些图像被赋予了不同的色温以辅助可视化。 AARO 不是情报界成员。本 AARO 信息报告不应被视为成品情报。它可能引用成品情报报告、AARO 协调的跨机构合作伙伴提供的信息，或两者兼有，以提供背景、显示相关性或佐证 AARO 的分析观点。